From Afterthought to Trendsetting Superstar

Avocados were not always the grocery store staple they are today. In the 1990s, they were often dismissed, overshadowed by low-carb dieting trends that vilified fatty foods. Mexico has long been the leading avocado producer, but it wasn’t until 1997, when President Clinton lifted a ban on imported Mexican avocados, that they gained popularity in the U.S.

Once the 87-year prohibition ended, avocados ascended from obscurity to fame. Currently, global consumption exceeds 11 billion pounds, with the U.S. alone responsible for over 2.5 billion pounds, averaging about eight pounds (3.6 kilos) per person annually. Every six minutes, a truck laden with avocados departs from Michoacán, Mexico, particularly to prepare for the Super Bowl, during which 54 million avocados are consumed in one day, representing 7% of annual consumption. Unsurprisingly, "Avocados from Mexico" became the first agricultural brand to sponsor a Super Bowl commercial.

The Thirsty Avocado: A Catalyst for Earthquakes

Michoacán, Mexico, serves as the epicenter of avocado production, accounting for 80% of the country's avocados and half of the world's supply. This industry occupies an area comparable to Hong Kong and boasts a market value exceeding $2.8 billion in 2023 (Source: Hass Avocado Board).

But this booming industry comes with dire costs. The relentless global demand for avocados has led to extensive illegal deforestation. Forests rich in biodiversity are being destroyed to clear land for avocado cultivation. In a shocking exploitation of legal loopholes, many forests are set ablaze to bypass regulations prohibiting commercial agriculture on burned land.

According to a Climate Rights International study, avocado farming has likely annihilated over 40,000 acres of forest in Michoacán and Jalisco over the past decade, potentially exceeding 70,000 acres, with many more at risk. Alarmingly, nearly all production areas are certified for export to the U.S.

The ramifications extend beyond deforestation. Clearing forests jeopardizes water availability, as these ecosystems are crucial for rainwater absorption and aquifer replenishment. The cultivation of avocados is particularly water-intensive, with each avocado requiring approximately 320 liters of water—equivalent to a 20-minute shower. Daily production utilizes around 9.5 billion liters of water, leading to severe water shortages and increasing flooding and landslides.

The unquenchable global thirst for avocados is draining vital ecosystems and depleting water resources, resulting in unforeseen consequences. From January 5 to February 15, 2020, 3,247 seismic events were recorded in Uruapan, the top avocado-producing region, attributed to the extraction of water for avocado farming, which has caused subsurface caverns.

In the first video, "Have You Got Avocado Problems? | Announcing: Ask Scott," we delve into the challenges posed by avocado production, exploring the environmental and social implications of this beloved fruit.

The Landscape of Avocado Production

Chile, my neighboring country to the west, plays a pivotal role in the avocado market, both as a consumer and a producer. The popular sandwich, ave-tomate-palta, is a staple in every Chilean bar. However, avocado farms in Chile are facing severe challenges due to annual megadroughts exacerbated by agribusiness practices. The infamous Petorca avocados require between 1,200 and 2,000 liters of water to yield just one kilogram of fruit, while residents in Petorca receive only 50 liters of water daily, delivered by truck. The complete desiccation of Aculeo Lagoon in 2018, a lake covering 12 square kilometers, starkly illustrates this water mismanagement.

It's easy to blame these issues solely on climate change. However, this dilemma stems from a destructive interplay between environmental factors and a frantic race to exploit remaining resources.

The Shrinking Avocado Landscape

Climate change does not discriminate—it yields both winners and losers. As global temperatures rise, certain species will be pushed out, while others might find new opportunities.

Research published in PLOS One indicates that global warming is suffocating some of the most productive avocado-growing regions. Under moderate warming conditions, suitable land for avocado cultivation could shrink by 20%. Mexico's Michoacán, a leading avocado hub, is projected to lose 59% of its viable growing area by 2050, even if we manage to keep global temperatures below 2°C. Conversely, other countries like the Dominican Republic, Peru, Chile, and Indonesia might see a loss of 55% to 70% of their prime avocado land. Meanwhile, the United States, Argentina, China, and East Africa could emerge as new avocado-growing hotspots as their latitudes warm. Yet, the study cautions that higher temperatures aren't the sole concern; avocado crops require specific precipitation levels, and unpredictable weather patterns in these new regions could negatively impact yields.

Farmers in regions like Colombia, unable to cultivate avocados any longer, face significant hardships. Avocados are a crucial income source for small-scale farmers globally, and the loss of these crops spells disaster for those who have dedicated substantial resources to growing these long-living trees.

Despite this evolving landscape, avocado cultivation continues to expand, often in areas unsuitable for such agriculture, both climatically and environmentally.

The Future of Food in a Changing Climate

A simple Google search combining 'climate change' and any food item will likely reveal how climate change is disrupting agriculture. Today, the spotlight is on avocados, but tomorrow, it could be any other crop. Extreme weather events—floods, droughts, wildfires, and hailstorms—are wreaking havoc on farmers everywhere.

While supply chain interruptions and labor shortages contribute to challenges, extreme heat is primarily driving food prices higher, a trend expected to worsen. A recent study warns that extreme temperatures will amplify food prices globally, with poor countries in North Africa and the Middle East facing some of the most severe price shocks due to already challenging climatic conditions.

The relationship is straightforward: if wheat crops fail, flour prices soar. Over the past four years, food prices have surged by 25%. From the ongoing chocolate crisis to the harsh realities behind your daily coffee, food issues are escalating. Even staples like ketchup and wine face threats.

Mexico finds itself in an avocado paradox: officials recognize that intensive farming drives deforestation and environmental harm, yet enforcement of regulations remains lax. This inaction stems partly from fears of violence from cartels, compounded by major importers who often overlook these issues, trading avocados sourced from deforested areas. While the U.S. government could play a crucial role, it has largely chosen to ignore its commitments to combat global deforestation and advocate for human rights, routinely certifying illegally deforested orchards.

Consumption in one nation shouldn't devastate another's environment. But, what would the Super Bowl be without guacamole?

Adaptation to climate change is essential. Leading producers must innovate and transform their practices—even if it comes at a high cost, especially for smallholder farmers who rely on each harvest for their livelihoods. The research exists, and we must advance it.

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