Herd Immunity and Its Consequences: Lessons from Manaus
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Understanding Herd Immunity
The ongoing global pandemic has shifted attention towards the search for effective vaccines, sparking extensive discussions on the concept of herd immunity. Many regions are grappling with severe second waves of COVID-19, and as flu season approaches in the northern hemisphere, concerns about healthcare systems being overwhelmed are intensifying.
Experts generally agree that achieving herd immunity typically requires over 50% of a population to be infected, which implies that the virus would run out of hosts to infect. If a significant portion of a community has contracted the virus and gained immunity, its ability to spread can be significantly curtailed.
However, the path to herd immunity is fraught with peril. Achieving such infection rates could lead to the loss of countless lives, a reality starkly evident in Manaus, Brazil, where the ramifications of this concept have played out dramatically. Brazil currently holds the unfortunate distinction of having the third-highest number of COVID-19 cases worldwide, following the United States and India.
During the height of the outbreak in May, Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state, faced dire situations with hospitals overwhelmed and fresh graves being dug daily. A recent report from a collaborative research team in Brazil and the UK suggests that the city may have reached herd immunity. According to their findings, which were shared on the preprint server medRxiv, new cases and deaths have sharply declined in Manaus, a city with a population of 1.8 million, since its peak four months prior.
The researchers from the Institute of Tropical Medicine at the University of São Paulo analyzed stored blood samples for antibodies and estimated that between 44% and 66% of Manaus's residents have been infected with the virus since the first case was identified in March.
If Manaus serves as a case study for herd immunity, it could imply that nearly two-thirds of its population may have contracted COVID-19, with a potential death toll of one in every 500 individuals before the pandemic subsides through this means. It is vital to note that Manaus has a relatively young demographic, with only 6% of its population aged over 60, compared to 16% in cities like New York. This raises questions about whether other regions would accept such a heavy toll for herd immunity ~ via MIT Technology Review.
This video titled "How Herd Immunity Mitigated a Deadly Second Wave of COVID-19 in Manaus" delves into the implications of herd immunity in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the experiences of Manaus.
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