Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Ambitions: A New Era in Foreign Policy
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Chapter 1: The Shift in Saudi Arabia's Global Position
Once predominantly recognized for its oil reserves, Saudi Arabia is now emerging as a significant economic and political player in the Middle East under the leadership of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS). This transformation involves diversifying its international relationships, moving away from a heavy reliance on the United States and engaging with major rivals like China and Russia. Should this trend continue, the U.S. risks losing a crucial ally in the region and its influence over global energy markets.
Grand Aspirations
Saudi Arabia's renewed emphasis on economic growth and soft power has led to a reduction in its military engagements. Notably, the kingdom has recently rekindled diplomatic relations with Iran, facilitated by China. Moreover, efforts are underway to resolve the Yemen crisis, which stems from its conflict with the Iran-aligned Houthi group.
In addition to diplomatic overtures, Saudi Arabia is coordinating oil production cuts with Russia to elevate prices, much to the discontent of the U.S. While MBS's relationship with President Biden has been strained—especially following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi—bin Salman has cultivated a close friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
To further its development goals, Saudi Arabia is contemplating joining the Abraham Accords, which would establish peace with Israel and several Arab nations. However, the underlying motivation may not solely be peace; it appears to also be a strategic move to gain access to U.S. civilian nuclear technology to support energy production and enhance national security.
Saudi Vision 2030, MBS's ambitious development plan, envisions expansive projects across the kingdom, including the futuristic "Neom" initiative, which aims to create new cities and industrial zones. One standout project is “The Line,” a city stretching over 100 miles, designed to operate without roads, cars, or emissions. Supplying energy to such ambitious developments may require nuclear power.
Nuclear Technology Considerations
In its pursuit of nuclear technology, Saudi Arabia is signaling an interest in acquiring capabilities from China, which would grant Beijing a significant foothold in the Middle East. Additionally, South Korea is being considered as a supplier, offering the potential for greater oversight and non-proliferation measures through its use of U.S. technology in nuclear reactors.
The U.S. faces a challenging dilemma regarding support for MBS's aspirations. Alienating him, as Biden did post-Khashoggi, risks pushing Saudi Arabia into deeper ties with China and Russia, potentially sacrificing a strategic ally. Conversely, conceding to MBS's demands could lead to heightened regional tensions, particularly if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, prompting Saudi Arabia to pivot towards military applications of its nuclear technology.
An additional layer of complexity arises from MBS's lack of commitment to democratic reforms and human rights. While he has made strides in enhancing women’s rights and reducing the power of the morality police, significant human rights violations persist, including harsh penalties for dissent.
Moreover, MBS's decision to restore Syria’s Assad regime to the Arab League, despite ongoing U.S. sanctions against Syria for war crimes, reflects a foreign policy increasingly at odds with U.S. interests. His willingness to engage with Iran and China suggests a growing independence from U.S. influence.
A Limit to Progress
While many Saudis support MBS's vision, segments of society may feel excluded or ideologically opposed to the changes. As MBS's reforms progress, domestic opposition may rise, particularly from conservative factions resistant to altering the kingdom's religious character.
Extremist groups, including Al-Qaida, view the Saudi royal family as illegitimate and could exploit any perceived betrayal of Islamic principles, such as a peace agreement with Israel, as justification for violence.
Ironically, MBS himself poses a potential threat to his reform agenda. His history of bold actions raises questions about his loyalty to these plans. Without systems of checks and balances, he could shift course dramatically, especially if his ambitious projects falter.
Regardless of MBS's trajectory, maintaining a close U.S.-Saudi relationship is essential. At 37, MBS is poised to lead for decades, and the U.S. must ensure he aligns with its global strategic interests.
Chapter 2: Nuclear Aspirations and Regional Dynamics
In the first video, titled 'If they get one, we have to': Saudi Arabia will seek nuclear weapon if Iran does, the discussion revolves around the potential arms race in the Middle East and the motivations behind Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions.
The second video, Saudi Arabia seeking US help on nuclear program for peace with Israel, explores the complexities of Saudi Arabia's nuclear program and its implications for peace agreements in the region.