Wladimir Putin's Aggression Against Ukraine

In November 2019, during a conference, I conversed with a business associate about whether we were on the cusp of a peaceful utopia for the first time in history. Growing up, I had heard stories from the two world wars, and the lasting peace in Europe post-1989 felt like a remarkable achievement.

I posed a question to my friend: "Do you think peace, wealth, and prosperity can endure?" She optimistically replied, "Yes, I hope so. Growing up in an Eastern German dictatorship was far from pleasant; I wish those times would remain in the past."

Little did we know that a few weeks later, everything would change. March 2020 brought about the pandemic, a crisis I believe was overstated in terms of the threat it posed, though the political response was severe.

As we began to emerge from the pandemic, another shocking event unfolded: Wladimir Putin initiated a significant military conflict against Ukraine. The western border of Ukraine is merely a five-hour drive from my home, and on February 24, he launched an attack without formally declaring war, referring to it instead as a "special operation."

The European Spirit of Collaboration

In the wake of World War II, European nations convened to analyze the causes of the previous conflicts. The conclusion I learned was that ineffective communication and economic isolation, compounded by nationalism, were significant contributors to the hostilities that had plagued Europe.

Historically, Europe has been characterized by internal strife, with its narrative often glorifying warriors and battles. The establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952 was seen as a remedy for rising nationalism and laid the groundwork for the modern European Union.

Having grown up in Austria, which joined the Union in 1995, I embraced the ethos of cooperation that aimed to reduce conflict through shared communication, trade, and interaction among nations. The underlying belief was that economic interdependence would foster lasting peace.

However, over the years, Europe became increasingly reliant on raw materials from Russia, outsourced manufacturing to China and other Asian nations, and pursued international scientific collaborations.

As we stand today, the once-cherished notion of perpetual peace through economic engagement feels like a relic of a bygone era.

What Lies Ahead?

In a matter of months, two monumental and dystopian events have reshaped our reality: the European response to the pandemic and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. I vividly recall the optimism surrounding peace and prosperity, but that time has now passed.

Why has this change occurred? Before the Ukraine invasion, European leaders were engaged in diplomatic efforts to negotiate peaceful resolutions to the issues presented by Putin, including:

1. Preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.
2. Granting independence to Donetsk and Luhansk.
3. Disarming the Ukrainian military.
4. Officially recognizing Crimea as Russian territory.

European leaders were prepared to endorse these proposals at the negotiation table. I believe even the U.S. president was eager to avert a potential World War III. Yet, despite assurances that Russia would not invade Ukraine, Putin proceeded with his aggressive actions on February 24.

Despite the Russian government's insistence that this is merely a "special operation," it is clear that neither side can revert to the status quo prior to the invasion. Putin's actions have set him on a path from which retreat would be perceived as weakness among his inner circle.

European leaders, too, find themselves in a precarious position. They are compelled to respond with economic sanctions against Russia while maintaining their dignity in the face of aggression. Returning to normal relations without addressing the invasion would mean losing face.

The Future of Global Relations

At best, we may see Europe and the U.S. sever economic ties with Russia, which could lead to a closer alliance between Russia and China. This scenario might usher in a new Cold War—characterized by political standoffs and economic isolation without military confrontation.

In the worst-case scenario, I still cling to the hope that negotiations could resume, though it feels like a distant fantasy that perished on February 24.

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This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as financial, investment, or legal advice. Always consult a professional before making significant decisions.